Why Trump’s Foreign Policy Still Baffles the World — And Why It Shouldn’t
In the latest episode of Breaking Battlegrounds, hosts Chuck Warren and Sam Stone welcomed political analyst Henry Olsen, senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center and host of the Beyond the Polls podcast. Olsen joined to discuss his recent column examining the international reaction to Donald Trump’s unexpected decision to support weapons for Ukraine and threaten sanctions against Putin.
According to Olsen, European leaders were “shocked” — but their surprise reveals a fundamental misunderstanding of Trump himself.
“Trump isn’t guided by ideology,” Olsen explained. “He’s purely transactional. Everything is about getting to a deal that benefits American strength, peace, and trade.”
Unlike traditional politicians who operate within fixed philosophical frameworks or rely on the political process to build consensus, Trump’s approach centers on pragmatism and flexibility. Olsen emphasizes that Trump’s willingness to make a complete 180 on major policy positions isn't a contradiction — it’s a feature of his deal-first mentality.
To illustrate this, Olsen pointed to Trump’s famously erratic relationship with North Korea’s Kim Jong-un. After shifting from threats to flattery, Trump reversed course again when it became clear denuclearization was off the table — walking out of the summit early, effectively ending talks. The press was stunned, but Olsen says the pattern was clear: once a deal becomes impossible, Trump moves on.
“He doesn’t feel bound by past statements,” Olsen said. “He adapts to get to the deal — and if there’s no deal, he drops it.”
Now, Olsen argues, Trump’s hardline turn on Russia is part of the same pattern. For those watching closely, he says, the signs were always there.
In essence: Trump isn’t erratic — he’s results-driven. And until global leaders accept that, Olsen warns, they’ll keep getting blindsided.
Transcript
Sam Stone: And on the line with us, friend of the program, Henry Olson, senior fellow at the Ethics and Public Policy Center and host of Beyond the Polls podcast. Follow him on X at Henry Olson EPPC. He had a piece recently that... Chuck, I, you we're all we thought it was super insightful and we wanted to bring him
on to talk about it so Henry thank you for joining us tell us a little bit about the piece you put out european shock by trump's move on ukraine uh because they do
not understand the man.
Henry Olson: Yeah I mean what I was trying to do was say that Trump's decision to allow weapons to go to Ukraine and threaten sanctions on Putin shocked a lot of people, but it shouldn't have, because they just don't understand the man.
What they don't understand is that he is not governed by ideology or overarching philosophy. He is purely
and solely transaction-oriented. And he comes from a standpoint of he wants peace, he wants trade, he wants a strong America, and everything is a deal to get that. And if you get that, you understand that he can change 180 degrees when he sees there's a different way
to get to those same goals, rather than most politicians who stay stuck in their worldview and consequently frustrate their ability to get their goals.
Sam Stone: Is that the case? It seems with him like a lot of politicians value the process very highly. We're sort of trained in the political industry that process is central to everything. And here's a guy who comes along. He doesn't care about process at all, at least by appearances. Right.
Henry Olson: Yeah, I mean, but that gets back to the deal making arrangement is that politics tends to operate on the idea of some level of consensus. You know, Europeans tend to value it more so they want a broader consensus. Americans tend to be happy with a 50 to 60 percent consensus. But you don't get consensus
by alienating people you don't get consensus by doing the sort of things that trump gets but trump is a deal oriented person he understands that as long as people have interest in each other they will take a lot of abuse or flattery and put it to the
side and operate to try and make an arrangement so consequently process is As itself, to get consensus is not something he's focused on. Process to get to a deal is something he's focused on, and it's a very different process than one that's geared towards consensus.
Sam Stone: With this piece, one of the analogies you made that I thought was really good was talking about, in his first term, his interactions with Kim Jong-un, where he was flattering him and reaching out. There was a lot of engagement, and Trump was just getting torn up in the press for it.
But then when that didn't work, he did a 180 on him.
Henry Olson: Yeah, and that's the thing. If you go back and remember, Trump starts by talking and does a little bit of threatening of Jong Un. And then Jong Un just kind of reaches out, and Trump suddenly becomes enormously flattering. And the entire elite says, oh, my God,
Trump is going to go and he's going to sell out to South Koreans. He's going to sign a bad deal, et cetera, et cetera. And then... When he realizes at the summit that Jong-un has no intention of denuclearizing the peninsula, which is Trump's bottom line,
Trump humiliates him by walking out a day early and never comes back to the table. None of this should have surprised the elites because Trump always focuses on a deal. He always telegraphs what he wants from the deal, and he is completely flexible As to how to get there.
And he doesn't feel bound by things he said before when the deal breaks down. This is what's been happening with Putin. And once again, the elites don't get it.
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