Tyler Pager Breaks Down the 2024 Election—Biden’s Insular Circle, Trump’s Calculated Campaign, and Surprises from Inside the Race
In this episode, hosts Chuck Warren and Sam Stone welcome Tyler Pager, White House correspondent for The New York Times and co-author of the new book, "2024: How Trump Retook the White House and Democrats Lost America." Pager—who previously covered the White House at The Washington Post and won the 2022 Gerald R. Ford Journalism Prize—discusses the research and revelations behind the book.
Co-authored with fellow reporters Josh Dawsey and Isaac Arnsdorf, the book draws on over 350 interviews with key players from all sides of the election. Pager explains that their goal was to craft a fast, comprehensive, behind-the-scenes account of how Donald Trump made a political comeback and how Democrats lost their grip on voters.
Key Takeaways from the Conversation:
Biden’s Re-Election: A One-Man Decision
One of the most surprising discoveries was that President Biden never had a formal conversation with his inner circle about whether he should run for re-election. Instead, he simply told staff he was running—until he said otherwise, there was no room for discussion.
Even after troubling debate performances, aides, pollsters, and elected Democrats were unable to reach Biden directly to express their concerns. This isolation within the White House raised serious questions about decision-making and accountability.
Trump’s Strategic Pivot
Contrary to his often chaotic public persona, Trump’s campaign in 2024 was highly calculated and data-driven behind the scenes.
Pager outlines how the campaign strategically embraced vote-by-mail, tailored its message to target male voters, and softened its stance on abortion in a way that aligned with broader Republican goals.
In a private conversation with co-author Josh Dawsey, Trump even admitted surprise at the overwhelming support he received from GOP rivals while facing multiple legal indictments.
Why It All Mattered
The episode dives into the disconnect between public narratives and private campaign strategies—showing that many of the key outcomes in 2024 stemmed from overlooked internal decisions, isolation at the top levels of leadership, and the power of media framing.
Pager paints a picture of a Biden campaign stuck in denial and a Trump campaign that—at least strategically—knew exactly what it was doing.
This discussion offers a rare, in-depth look into the less visible forces that shaped one of the most consequential elections in U.S. history, making it a must-listen for political observers, strategists, and voters alike.
Transcript
Sam Stone: Here's Chuck Warren. I'm Sam Stone. Jumping right into it, our first guest up today, Tyler Pager, White House correspondent at The New York Times. He previously covered the White House at The Washington Post, where he won the 2022 Gerald R. Ford Journalism Prize for Distinguished Reporting on the presidency.
And he is the author, the reason he's on today, he is the author of the new book, 2024, How Trump Retook the White House and Democrats Lost America. Tyler Pager, thank you so much for joining us.
Tyler Pager: Thanks for having me.
Chuck Warren: So Tyler, first of all, how is it, what is the process for writing a book with two other journalists? So there's three of you writing. How does that work out briefly?
Tyler Pager: Yeah, it's a great question. We all worked together at The Washington Post and Josh and Isaac were covering Donald Trump and the Republican primary. And I was covering the White House and Joe Biden and Kamala Harris. And the goal of this book was to write the definitive, comprehensive story of the election under a tight timeline while people were still thinking and processing the election.
And so given that, we joined forces to do the reporting and writing together. We interviewed more than 350 people. Josh went down to Mar-a-Lago to interview Donald Trump. I had a brief call we can talk about later with Joe Biden,
but we really wanted to go deep and wide with our sourcing and with the story here. And that takes a lot of people. And so The Washington Post was a super collaborative place to work, and we brought our reporting power and experience to bear to try to capture the election.
Chuck Warren: Tyler, as you wrote this book, what would be the one tidbit or storyline that surprised the three of you?
Tyler Pager: I think there were a lot of storylines that surprised us there on all three of the campaigns. Right. So with Joe Biden, one of the sort of, you know, there were many surprising things, one of them being that he and his aides never had a conversation about whether he should or should not run for reelection.
We opened one of the chapters with a line that says Joe Biden didn't decide he was running for reelection. He just told his aides he was running until he told them he wasn't. The insularity of Joe Biden. After the debate, there were many people that tried to get to him to share their concerns from
members of Congress to members of his own staff to his pollsters that had no access to him. On the Trump side of things, I think some of the decisions that Donald Trump made in private, some of the more calculating strategic decisions as it related to vote by mail, voting early, to his outreach to men,
to his position on abortion, positions that I think a lot of people weren't aware of how calculating the campaign was. to execute on those. I mean, another thing that I think is really interesting, and this even surprised Donald Trump, he said to my co-author Josh Dossie,
he was surprised at how much support he got from fellow Republicans when he was facing criminal charges. Sort of the outpouring of support from even the people running against him was a surprise to him.
Chuck Warren: Well, I know five. I name them and give you phone numbers of people who are Republicans, but I would call them Bush Republicans, who voted for him because of the constant legal attacks.
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