Trump’s 37% Problem Isn’t Democrats — It’s Republicans
There’s a number floating around Washington right now that should make Republicans pause. 37%. That’s Donald Trump’s approval rating in the latest Pew Research polling. His disapproval? 61%. But that’s not the real story. The real story is where the erosion is happening. It’s not Democrats. It’s Republicans.
On the latest episode of Breaking Battlegrounds, longtime California political strategist Jon Fleischman explains why that shift matters far more than the headline number.
This Isn’t Just Another Poll
We’re drowning in polling. Most of it is noise. But Pew Research is different. They ask the same questions. In the same way. Using the same models.
That allows for real trend analysis — not just political clickbait.
And here’s what the trend shows:
Overall approval: 37%
Overall disapproval: 61%
Republican approval: 67%
At first glance, 67% might sound solid. It’s not — not for Trump. Historically, Trump’s approval among Republicans has hovered well into the 90% range. Numbers not seen since Reagan. A drop from the 90s to 67% isn’t statistical drift. It’s a warning light. Inside that number is another critical detail: roughly 18% of Republicans now believe he’s heading in the wrong direction. That’s not opposition-party discontent. That’s movement inside the base. Jon breaks down why that matters heading into the midterms — and why even small enthusiasm shifts can change the map.
The Moment Everything Shifted
Presidential politics almost always comes back to one thing: The economy. Trump won reelection in part by running against dissatisfaction with the Biden-era economy — inflation, gas prices, grocery bills, housing. But once reelected, something changed. As Jon explains on the show, when Trump introduced tariffs, he effectively took ownership of the economy in the minds of voters.
It stopped being “the Biden economy.”
It became “the Trump economy.”
Fair or unfair — when you’re in the Oval Office, you own the scoreboard. And voters still feel squeezed. Gas isn’t cheap. Groceries aren’t cheap. Housing is brutally expensive. Interest rates remain high.
Voters don’t parse macroeconomic nuance. They feel pressure. And pressure translates into polling.
Why This Matters More Than You Think
Second-term presidents often see dips. That’s not new. But what makes this moment different is where the softness is appearing. If Republican enthusiasm drops — even modestly — turnout math shifts in battleground districts. In today’s razor-thin environment, a few percentage points is the difference between control and chaos. Jon walks through the implications clearly and calmly — without hysteria, without spin. Just the numbers. And what they mean.
The Bigger Conversation
This segment is just the beginning. In the same episode, we pivot into a major education fight unfolding in California — one that could have national implications. If you care about midterms, economic ownership, base enthusiasm, and the future of conservative policy battles in blue states, this episode is worth your time.
Because the question isn’t just: “Is Trump’s approval down?”
The real question is: What happens if that softness hardens? And who benefits?
Transcript
Sam Stone: Welcome back to Breaking Battlegrounds. Our second guest is Jon Fleischman. Jon has spent over 35 years in the trenches of California politics, which as a Republican is a remarkable, remarkable fight to have engaged in. He’s worked at every level of government, advised hundreds of campaigns and written more than 2,500 political columns. And he’s got some fantastic stuff out right now via his site. So does it matter?
Definitely recommend you check that out at sodoesitmatter.com. Jon Fleischman, thank you so much for joining us and welcome to the program.
Jon Fleischman: Thank you very much for having me on the program. was just telling you right before we went live that it’s a bit surreal to be on your program. You guys do such a great job and thank you for doing what you do to help spread the word to a lot of people about a lot of crazy things happening in the United States.
Sam Stone: It’s a mutual fan club because we love your work also. And I want to start out, just jump real quick because we only have a short time in this segment into two quick issues you’ve talked about and then we’re going to use the final segment to really get into some Ed Choice stuff that’s going on in California. But real quick, latest polling out from Pew Research Center, I think there’s a lot of people on the Republican side out there right now who aren’t admitting that Donald Trump is really taking a beating with the middle right now.
Jon Fleischman: Yeah well, you know, this is what happens, by the way, this is not unusual for a second term president after their first year. But, you know, Pew’s research and I, I use, Pew a lot because I really trust their results. And they’re they’re very good about giving year over year asking the same question. So they asked...
Sam Stone: They ask the same questions in the same way and they use the same data models which actually makes a legit trend.
Jon Fleischman: Right, exactly. And so what we’ve got right now is that amongst all voters, when you ask the question of, you know, the way do you approve of the way that Donald Trump is handling his job, Donald Trump’s approval rating in that regard is down to 37% and his disapproval rating is at 61%. But the thing that’s the most significant about this change, I mean, frankly, there was no drop possible for Democrats. President Trump’s numbers have dropped because he’s losing Republicans.
And when we say losing Republicans, it’s all relative. President Trump has enjoyed more support amongst Republicans in his time in office than, you know, I think any president since Reagan up and over well into the 90% approval ratings. And now it’s, now it’s, it’s dropped considerably. So now we’re at a point where Republicans have now dropped to 67% approval rating, you know, so that’s a really big drop and obviously that’s still a healthy two-thirds of all Republicans support him.
But you know that you know you know he’s got he’s got an 18% group of Republicans who think that he’s going off on the wrong track and so you know this as we get into the midterms...
Sam Stone: That’s a big number.
Jon Fleischman: Yeah. And I think a lot of it has to do with, think people vote about the economy and you know, when president Trump was reelected, he, he, was able to run on Biden’s record on the economy. And then for better or for worse, when he became president, Donald Trump introduced his, his tariffs and it was very controversial. And he, in that process took over the economy. It went from being the Biden economy to the Trump economy in the minds of voters very, very quickly.
And so now he owns the economy but everybody still knows when you get gas when you go to the grocery store you know everything still really expensive than and then underlying all of this is the housing crisis right now or housing prices are really high interest rates are really high. So it’s a tough economic time in it may or may not be fair to the president but you know when you’ve got the big job you get the everyone’s expecting you to solve it.
Listen to the full episode of Breaking Battlegrounds anywhere you stream your podcasts!