Recruiting Challenges Facing the U.S. Military

Preparing for Peer-on-Peer Conflict With China

Mar 17, 2025

By R. Russell Walker
@RWalkerFW

As the U.S. military pivots its focus toward preparing for a potential peer-on-peer conflict, particularly with China over Taiwan, it faces significant recruiting challenges. The National Defense Strategy has acknowledged China as a primary competitor, necessitating a transformation in how the U.S. military recruits, trains, and retains personnel. Despite technological advances and an advanced military, the success of the U.S. military still hinges on having a lethal, ready, and sufficiently large force. However, recruitment numbers have been declining for over a decade, and barriers such as changing cultural priorities (e.g., DEI, social media), poor physical fitness, low test scores, and health standards present challenges in meeting the needs of the modern military.

This article will explore the challenges in military recruitment and retention, particularly in the context of preparing for a potential conflict with China and the defense of Taiwan, and propose solutions to ensure that the U.S. military is ready for the demands of peer-on-peer warfare.

Recruitment Crisis: Why the U.S. Military Struggles to Meet Its Goals

The U.S. military’s struggle to meet recruitment targets is not new but has intensified over the past decade. Several factors contribute to this problem:

1. Declining Physical Fitness and Health Issues

Physical fitness and overall health are major challenges. In 2022, nearly 71% of young Americans aged 17 to 24 were considered ineligible for military service due to physical, medical, educational, or moral standards (DOD, 2022). The U.S. military requires recruits to meet physical standards, including weight, height, and fitness tests. However, a large portion of U.S. youth cannot meet these requirements due to obesity, chronic health conditions, and lack of physical activity (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2021).

Obesity, in particular, is a critical concern. Nearly 40% of adults and 20% of children in the U.S. are classified as obese (Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, 2022). Obesity directly impacts military readiness by disqualifying potential recruits.

Furthermore, recruits who qualify may lack the mental strength to complete rigorous school and combat training. In response, the DOD introduced the Army Combat Fitness Test (ACFT) to replace the Army Physical Fitness Test (APFT). However, its implementation has been challenging. Female recruits and older soldiers have struggled to meet the standards for combat roles, leading to adjustments in 2022, including adding gender- and age-based scoring. These changes illustrate the difficulties in meeting physical fitness standards across all demographic groups. This highlights a major recruiting and retention challenge. Combat standards should not vary based on gender or age, a standardized job minimum approach remains essential to combat lethality.

2. Low Academic Achievement and Test Scores

Educational requirements present another barrier. While the Armed Services Vocational Aptitude Battery (ASVAB) is used to assess eligibility, approximately 25% of high school graduates lack the academic qualifications to meet minimum military entrance standards (U.S. Department of Defense, 2022). The gap between the educational performance of potential recruits and military requirements continues to widen (National Center for Education Statistics, 2021).

As modern warfare becomes more technologically advanced, the military needs recruits with higher academic qualifications and specialized skills, such as expertise in cyber warfare, artificial intelligence, and advanced weaponry. However, fewer young people are meeting these criteria, and fewer are willing to serve in combat arms roles, which adds complexity to recruitment.

3. Lack of Interest in Military Service

A decline in interest in military service is a third challenge. Surveys indicate fewer young people view military service as an attractive career option. This is partly due to changing societal attitudes toward military service, especially as the U.S. engaged in wars in Iraq and Afghanistan (Pew Research Center, 2018). The increasing emphasis on higher education and career paths outside of the military has also contributed to the decline in interest. Additionally, the availability of lucrative civilian jobs, especially in the tech and business sectors, has made military service less appealing to young people (U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2022).

4. Cultural Considerations

Another challenge is the impact of changing societal attitudes on military service. A 2021 study found that most enlisted personnel identify as conservative or very conservative, while a significant portion of the officer corps, 80-90% identifies as Republican (Ronald Reagan Institute, 2021). However, radically leftist policies pushed by Democrat administrations have made the military more politically charged. The adoption of Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion (DEI) policies, radical gender policies, and other social engineering efforts have made service less appealing to many potential recruits, particularly among more conservative or traditional military families. For example, the inclusion of race, gender and sexual preference in promotion and job placement consideration and the Army’s adjustments to the ACFT to accommodate women, is evidence that standards have been decreased and increase concerns about the impact on combat readiness and lethality.

Moreover, the Biden administration’s vaccine mandate resulted in the departure of over 10,000 service members, further undermining recruitment efforts. Negative coverage on social media of these and other politically charged issues has amplified concerns deterring young, conservative candidates who historically make up the majority of military service members.

5. Technological Warfare

To counter peer competitors like China, the U.S. military must focus on technologically advanced warfare. The emergence of hypersonic weapons, autonomous drones, directed energy weapons, sonic weapons and cyber capabilities requires recruits who possess both physical aptitude and technical expertise. Finding individuals qualified to operate cutting-edge technologies adds further pressure on the already strained recruitment system.

Expanding Force Structure: Meeting the Demands of Peer Conflict

As the U.S. military shifts toward preparing for a peer-on-peer conflict, particularly with China over Taiwan, it faces not only recruiting challenges but also a demand for a larger and more lethal force structure. The Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has rapidly modernized, significantly increasing its technological capabilities and expanding its force structure. While China is untested in battle, it boasts the world’s largest standing military, with around 2 million active-duty personnel in its Army, Navy, and Air Force (IISS, 2021). Additionally, China’s advances in naval and missile capabilities are critical in any conflict over Taiwan.

In comparison, the U.S. military, while technologically superior in some domains, faces a force structure that may struggle against China’s growing military power. As of 2022, the U.S. had approximately 1.3 million active-duty personnel across all branches (U.S. Department of Defense, 2022). While the U.S. maintains an edge in certain technologies, the size and technological sophistication of the Chinese military remain a significant challenge.

One of the most significant challenges in expanding the U.S. force structure is recruitment. While China benefits from a large pool of recruits, the U.S. faces a shrinking pool of qualified candidates. This presents a dilemma: how can the U.S. expand its military capabilities to match China’s growing force structure? A larger, more capable U.S. force will require an influx of recruits, many of whom must be highly skilled to operate advanced systems in a high-tech, peer-on-peer conflict. Moreover, U.S. reserve forces are suffering from decreased recruitment and retention.

Expanding the U.S. military’s force structure will require not only an increase in the number of recruits but also the creation of specialized roles to meet future warfare demands. Key areas for growth include cyber and space domains, where China has made significant strides. Building robust cybersecurity and expanding cyber warfare capabilities will be critical. Similarly, expanding the U.S. Navy and Air Force is essential to maintaining an edge over China’s rapidly advancing fleets. However, technological advancements aren’t enough, the Chinese threat demands a significant increase in traditional combined arms forces. Boots on the ground.

Potential Solutions to Recruitment Challenges

While the challenges are daunting, several steps can be taken to increase recruitment and ensure the U.S. military is prepared for a peer-on-peer conflict with China.

1. Strengthening Physical Fitness Programs

One immediate solution is to invest in nationwide fitness programs to improve the health of the general population. Schools, communities, and local governments should encourage physical activity from an early age to ensure more young Americans are fit for military service. The services should target athletes, and those most suited for the rigors and challenges of combat. Additionally, the military can offer targeted fitness training and educational programs to help potential recruits meet entrance requirements (U.S. Army Recruiting Command, 2021).

2. Expanding Educational Pathways and Reaching Underrepresented Communities

The military should expand its educational outreach and help bridge the academic achievement gap. Initiatives that assist high school students in preparing for the ASVAB or offer remedial educational programs can help broaden the pool of qualified recruits (National Defense Authorization Act, 2020). Additionally, reaching out to underrepresented communities and offering mentorship in education and physical fitness could be beneficial.

3. Rebranding the Military and Offering Greater Incentives

Rebuilding the military's image and emphasizing the Warrior Ethos is crucial. The military must appeal to younger generations by highlighting not only a sense of duty and patriotism but also opportunities for personal development, job security, and career advancement. Restoring the merit system, addressing quality-of-life issues, and enhancing benefits such as education funding, retirement plans, and career training will make military service more attractive (Department of Defense, 2022).

4. Emphasizing Technology and Innovation

The military should prioritize recruiting individuals with expertise in emerging technologies. Offering scholarships and incentives for students in STEM fields could help attract the next generation of cyber warriors and technical experts. Recruiting efforts should target individuals with skills in artificial intelligence, cybersecurity, and other relevant fields to prepare for the technological warfare that will define future conflicts (National Science Foundation, 2021).

Conclusion

As the U.S. military prepares for a peer-on-peer conflict with China and the defense of Taiwan, it must overcome significant recruitment challenges. Declining physical fitness, low academic achievement, and shifting societal attitudes toward military service present barriers to attracting the necessary talent. Moreover, the size and capabilities of the Chinese military further emphasize the need for a robust U.S. force structure to match or exceed China’s capabilities.

By restoring the warrior ethos, prioritizing merit, investing in physical fitness programs, expanding educational pathways, rebranding the military, and targeting emerging technology fields, the U.S. can meet these challenges and ensure its military is ready for high-tech, high-intensity conflicts in the future. Success in future peer-on-peer warfare will depend not only on cutting-edge technologies but also on having the best-trained and most lethal force ready to engage in the fight at any time.

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