From Reagan to Trump: Oren Cass on Tariffs, China, and America’s Economic Future

In a compelling segment on Breaking Battlegrounds, policy thinker and author Oren Cass joined hosts Chuck Warren and Sam Stone to break down why tariffs are not just a political talking point, but a necessary economic strategy for America’s future. Drawing on both history and current geopolitical tensions, Cass made the case that the United States must break from decades of blind commitment to globalization and instead embrace a more assertive industrial policy—starting with tariffs.

Cass pointed out that the Republican Party has deep roots in protectionism, reminding listeners that Abraham Lincoln, Teddy Roosevelt, and even Ronald Reagan all used tariffs strategically to defend American industry. He recalled how Reagan responded to the surge of cheap Japanese cars in the 1980s not by bowing to global trade pressure, but by threatening tariffs—ultimately leading Japanese auto manufacturers like Toyota and Honda to build plants in the American South. Today, that legacy continues, with those same companies employing thousands of American workers and contributing deeply to the U.S. economy.

But Cass warns the situation with China is fundamentally different. “China isn’t a market democracy like Japan,” he explained. “We’re not just dealing with foreign competition—we’re dealing with a system controlled by the Chinese Communist Party.” Unlike Toyota, companies like BYD are backed by the state, and their dominance in U.S. and European markets could lead to a massive capital and technological shift away from the West.

“We need to treat this the way we treated the Soviet Union,” Cass asserted. “This is not just about trade; this is about who shapes the future—America or China.”

Cass’s new book, The New Conservative, expands on these themes, calling for a reinvention of the conservative economic agenda in an era where market fundamentalism no longer serves national interests.

Transript

Chuck Warren: Let's talk tariffs. We got about four minutes left here. Do you like how Donald Trump is implementing tariffs?

And then I heard in an interview you did, Tucker Carlson, you gave this great example about how Reagan handled Japan and viewed them as a threat. And today, because of his hard line, the South benefits from it.

Oren Cass: Yeah, that's right. I think what the Trump administration is doing is incredibly important,

both in just in principle saying the system we have pursued with globalization and free trade has not worked. We need to move on from it. We need to construct something new and appropriate to the modern economy and America's needs. And I think tariffs are a huge part of what's needed to do that.

And it's such a great example of a place where historically, the Republican Party was always the party of tariffs. Abraham Lincoln was proudly a tariff man. Teddy Roosevelt was proudly, you know, McKinley, all the way up through, as you just mentioned, Reagan, who, you know, yes, liked the idea of free trade among market democracies,

but was also more than happy to recognize that, for instance, the way that Japan was behaving in the 1980s was not consistent with free trade. And Reagan, very much in the same way Trump has focused on China, Reagan focused on Japan. And so I think a really good example that helps make sense of what the Trump

administration is trying to do now is what the Reagan administration did when cheap Japanese cars were flooding into the US in the early 1980s. And basically, under the threat of, if we don't do something about this, we're going to impose tariffs. The Japanese agreed to constrain their own exports.

The Japanese ended up going to Toyota and Honda and saying, this isn't going to fly anymore. We want you guys to be successful in the United States. But to do that, you need to go build in the United States. And that's why Toyota and Honda moved to the US South. And that's why we have that entire industry there now.

Sam Stone: How critical is that in relation to China given the rise of BYD and their automotive industry at a moment when if they take over the U.S. and European markets, you're talking about an extraordinary additional capital shift?

Oren Cass: Yeah, I think the story with China, that's a way in which it's very different because China is not a market democracy. I don't think we want to say just like we were happy to have Toyota here. The Toyota Camry actually has more American-made content in it than any car coming from Detroit at this point. Toyota sponsors the U.S. Olympic team. That's great.

I don't think we feel the same way about companies that are controlled by the Chinese Communist Party.

Sam Stone: No, no.

Oren Cass: And so I think with respect to China, we need to have a model closer to the way we thought about the Soviet Union, which is just this is an incompatible economic and political system. We can't be embracing it.

Sam Stone: The future is going to be decided by either America or China, and it's a much better future if it's America. Oren Kass, thank you so much. We love having you on the program. Would love to have you back again. Folks, follow him on X at Oren. Warren underscore Cass or at American Compass, understandingamerica.co.

And check out his new book, The New Conservative, available June 3rd everywhere you get your favorite books.

Listen to the full episode of Breaking Battlegrounds anywhere you stream your podcasts!